The Post Release Hype Cycle

When new product gets released, it's natural to want to chase all the hits right away. But the best move you can make for your wallet is to wait patiently.

If you’ve done any sort of research around how to invest in stock when startups IPO, one bit of advice you’ve undoubtedly heard is not to buy right away. During the initial release period, the stock will typically spike, and spike hard. But 9 times out of 10, that same stock will start to dip back down after a couple of months as it stabilizes. That’s when you buy, if it’s a company you believe in.

The same thing is very true with new sports card releases. A new release is immediately followed by a period of massive hype. Everyone starts seeing the new hot rookies, the fresh take on inserts, and they want a piece. Breakers start to post breaks that all grab premium prices. And folks lucky enough to have product in the first few days get to enjoy massive bidding wars to obtain it.

But chasing a new release really only makes sense if you can be one of the very first to be able to sell that product.

Let’s look at a few recent examples by zeroing in on some Victor Wembanyama (a player that, as a lifelong Spurs fan, I am all in on) releases. They’re a great example because right now, any new release means new Wembanyama rookies and those are going to be big chase cards across the industry.

Example 1: Hoops Wembanyama

We’ll start with the most recent release: NBA Hoops. The Hoops product was officially released on November 22nd and they feature quite a few Wembanyama’s to pull, including his first true rookie card of him in a Spurs uniform, and another base “tribute” subset.

If you look at the average sales prices on eBay for the two cards (I like Market Mover for this, you can try it free for 14 days here if you’re keen using code “EVERYCARD”), you can see they start off very hot, but have seen a sharp and steady decline since. I added a vertical pink line to signify the date of release.

From November 18th, when the first cards started showing up on eBay from sellers lucky enough to have the product early, until November 30th, the true rookie (#277) has seen a 69% decrease in the average sale price, while the tribute subset (#298) has decreased by 74%. That’s a pretty hefty drop. For the price you may have paid in that first few days, you could grab 3+ cards today.

In fact, the bulk of the initial spike in prices occurred before the initial release officially happened and most people could actually get their hands on it.

During the period before the official release (November 18-November 21), the base rookie averaged $42.81 per sale and the subset averaged $33.31. In the period after the release, the base has averaged $22.14 per sale and the tribute has averaged $18.18. If you’re not in as a seller in that first few days, then there’s really no need to rush and in fact, trying to rush to get the first few probably backfired on you.

Example #2: 2023 Mosaic Silver Quarterbacks

In case you thought this was just a Hoops or Wembanyama thing, let’s take a look at the 2023 Mosaic Football cards, which have been out a little longer. 2023 Mosaic saw an official release date of September 22nd. As always with football, the rookie quarterback’s are a hot commodity, so we’ll focus on the Silver variations of both Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud.

We can start with the first month or so after the product was released (in the case of Mosaic, no registered sales hit the market before the release date).

This chart’s pattern should look pretty familiar. Right around the initial release, both cards came out really hot. But by the end of October, the Richardson silver was down 57% and the CJ Stroud was down 59%.

CJ Stroud is actually a really interesting example, and I think you could see a similar thing play out with Wembanyama. While Richardson got injured for the season, Stroud has been sensational and looks like the easy favorite to be the rookie of the year. So while his cards did see the usual post release dip, they’ve also seen a slow rise since.

Let’s zoom out to see the full time period between the initial release and today for his Mosaic Silver.

Two things jump out.

First, despite his hot start, his cards declined sharply until bottoming out in early November. That’s the post-release hype cycle in action. As the market started to get saturated with this card, the supply and demand evens out and the value goes down.

Second, even though he’s been phenomenal, this card still hasn’t fully recovered to its initial release levels.

Once again, there was a lot of value in waiting, rather than chasing.

Good things come to those that wait

I want to be clear about one thing here, in case anyone mistakes what I’m trying to say. I like both CJ Stroud and Wembanyama long-term. They’ve both been sensational, and both look like they have the potential to be very, very good for a very long time.

I didn’t pick these two examples to pick on the players, but because if anyone in either sport should be able to break from the normal post-release hype cycle, it feels like it should have been these two.

But instead, we see that usual pattern. Hype drives initial price up, as the product gets out supply goes up and the values plummet, then eventually, if the player is playing well, they start to rebound.

So what to do with this information?

If you want the best bang for your buck, don’t chase initial releases. Simple as that.

Now, if you do like to rip, your best shot at getting your money back on a box is if you rip early, and sell early. If you’re buying your boxes or packs at a reasonable cost (eBay sales are usually quite a bit more expensive on day one than buying from the manufacturer or a retailer), and if you sell the ones you don’t want ASAP, you can get a bit more for each card in that early period than you might later on. But you’ll have to move fast.

On the flip side, you don’t want to move fast on buying individual cards. If you want to grab individual cards—whether for your PC or to sell later—don’t feel like you need to rush out on day one and snatch them up. The initial prices will be much higher. If you’re patient and sit for a couple of weeks, you’ll get a lot more bang for your buck.

I wouldn’t worry too much about trying to be super precise with your timing.

Stroud’s card bottomed out around 5 weeks after release, but he’s been phenomenal. Richardson, however, got injured, so his card is still declining. Wembanyama’s Hoops release is too early to tell, but his Prizm Draft Picks card is still dropping in value about a month after his initial release. It’ll bottom out and start to creep back up at some point if he keeps playing like he is—if he nets an All-Star appearance, goes on a little tear in the mid-season, etc it’ll spike—but when exactly that’s going to happen is hard to tell and there’s a lot of variability involved (how well he plays, impending basketball card releases, etc).

What we do know, is that your best bet for new product—whether as a collector or someone hoping to sell later at a profit—is to wait at least a few weeks before trying to buy heavily.